What does your check-list look like? | Print |

 

8 October 2009

Dear Fellow Investor

 

I recently stumbled onto and article in The New Yorker magazine called The Checklist written by Atul Gawande a multi talented surgeon who is also the author of a interesting book I am reading called Complications: A Surgeon's Notes on an Imperfect Science.
 
The article is quite long but it boils down to that in spite of strong evidence to the contrary highly trained people think its below them to use check-lists as they know what to do and working through a check-list is an insult to them.
 From the article:

“But this time he found few takers.

There were various reasons. Some physicians were offended by the suggestion that they needed check-lists Others had legitimate doubts about Pronovost’s evidence.”

 
This was in spite of these findings:
 

“Within the first three months of the project, the infection rate in Michigan’s I.C.U.s decreased by sixty-six per cent.

The typical I.C.U.—including the ones at Sinai-Grace Hospital—cut its quarterly infection rate to zero.

Michigan’s infection rates fell so low that its average I.C.U. outperformed ninety per cent of I.C.U.s nationwide.

In the Keystone Initiative’s first eighteen months, the hospitals saved an estimated hundred and seventy-five million dollars in costs and more than fifteen hundred lives. The successes have been sustained for almost four years, all because of a stupid little check-list”

 
All this from a check-list with steps as simple as “wash hands with soap”
 
Check-lists work best in a complex environment where the performing of certain steps are critical. In flying it is taken as a given that highly trained pilots work through check-list for virtually every eventuality.
 
An aeroplane is a complex entity, so is medical procedures and I want to argue so is investing.
 
 
When evaluating a company there are so many factors that are beyond our control. We however, through empirical research, do know what increases the probability of us making profitable investment decisions.
 
What is important is that we focus on what we can control in our research and analysis.
 
As part of my evaluation process I work through the following check-list:
  1. Operating cash flow higher than earnings per share
  2. Free Cash Flow/Share higher than dividends paid
  3. Debt to equity below 35%
  4. Debt less than book value
  5. LT debt less than 2 times working capital
  6. Pre-tax margins higher than 15%
  7. FCF Margin higher than 10%
  8. Current asset ratio greater than 1.5
  9. Quick ratio greater than 1
  10. Growth in EPS
  11. Management shareholding (> 10%)
  12. Altman Z Score > 3
  13. Substantial Dilution?
  14. Flow ratio (Good < 1.25, Bad > 3)
  15. Management incentives?
  16. Are the salaries too high?
  17. Bargaining power of suppliers?
  18. Is there heavy insider buying?
  19. Is there heavy insider selling?
  20. Net share buybacks?
  21. Is it a low risk business?
  22. Is there high uncertainty?
  23. Is it in my circle of competence?
  24. Is it a good business?
  25. Do I like the management? (Operators, capital allocators, integrity)
  26. Is the stock screaming cheap?
  27. How capital intensive is the business?
  28. High Profitability
  29. High Return on Capital
  30. Enormous moat
  31. Profitable reinvestment
  32. Future growth
  33. Net share buybacks?
  34. Strong cash flow
  35. What has management done with the cash?
  36. Where is Free Cash Flow invested?
      1. Share Buybacks
      2. Dividends
      3. Reinvested
      4. ROE & ROCE
      5. Incremental BV growth
 
I also have an analysis spreadsheet for companies I have come across through the Magic Screen from Joel Greenblatt. For these companies I use these additional check-list items:
 
  1. Magic formula values any outliers
  2. Bubble industry last 7 years
  3. Does the cash belong to the company
  4. EBIT / Assets > 20%
 
I have put this check-list together over a period of more than 20 years and often make changes as I gain new information and insights.
 
I do not have a formula that if a company fails X amount of points on the check-list I do not consider it.
 
The check-list however gives me an indication of what problem areas the company has and where I have to do further analysis.
 
Feel free to use the above points in your analysis process and
 
let me know if you have any additional points I can add to the check-list by clicking here.
 
 

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As I mentioned last Friday I attended a seminar organised by ACATIS Investment a German base value fund manager. The seminar was mainly attended by fund managers and was a very worthwhile event.
 
About 60% of the attendees thought the markets were fairly or overvalued and said it was difficult finding attractively priced investment.
 
Some potential undervalued areas were mentioned, mainly the shipping industry, private equity and natural gas.
 
The only area I have invested in is natural gas where I recommended a very entrepreneurial company in the USA to my subscribers in August. So far the price is up 5% so the opportunity is still attractive.
 
I have been talking to a friend in the shipping industry and man does it look bad!
 
He mentioned that the bulker market is still surviving but that the container ship market has been completely flattened because of too many ships and declining container cargo volumes.
 
He also said that larger container ships have been more effected by the crisis and warned me to avoid container ships at all costs as we have not yet seen the bottom in that market.
 
Your thinking its fairly valued analyst
 

 
 
Regards
 
Tim du Toit
 

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The IMF estimates that global bank capital must still absorb a further $1,500bn of losses in the next 18 months. USA 60% done and Europe only 40%. Pity the investors piling into bank equity issues!

 
 

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